Marathon-omics

I compiled the finishing times of the top 1000 male runners of the Boston Marathon between 2001 and 2010.  Why did I limit the data?  Because I am lazy. 

The average age of the top 1000 male finishers was 34.  For those 10 years, the average age of the 1000^th male finisher was 35.  The average time of the 1000^th male finisher was 3:02:51 which is just about the time I’d expect to run.  If you break out the finishers in 10 year age groups and stack times up in a spreadsheet, the graphic is revealing.  41% of the top 1000 male finishers are in their 30s.  That compares with 23% of the finishers in their 40s and 2.8% of the finishers in their 50s. 

Just looking at the raw data one thing is obvious.  Marathon performance peaks in the 30s and declines thereafter.  This is not good news.  My perception is that it is becoming harder to maintain the same performance level.  I am astute.  As the data shows, that is exactly what is happening.  It is inconceivable, but we get slower as we get older.  I need to find some numbers that make me feel better. 

Malcolm Gladwell, is his book Outliers, repeatedly mentions the “10,000-Hour Rule”, claiming that the key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of around 10,000 hours. 

Applying that rule to running, 10,000 hours (600,000 minutes) divided by 7:30 / mile pace equals 80,000 miles.  80,000 miles divided by 40 miles per week equals 2000 weeks.  2000 divided by 52 weeks equals 38 years.  This is very encouraging.  It means I haven’t reached my peak yet. 

Gladwell cites The Beatles as an example, but let’s look at The Who.  The band had been together since 1964, the year I was born.  They certainly achieved early success, but it wasn’t until they released their fifth album, Who's Next in 1971, that they reached super-stardom.  That was their seminal album and includes mega hits Baba O’Riley, Going Mobile and Won’t Get Fooled Again.  I’d like to think that there was a time when my race performances were like that; the stuff of legends.  Now they are more like The Who’s halftime performance at the 2010 Super Bowl; the stuff of nightmares. 

John Elway had the good sense to retire after winning the Super Bowl MVP.  Ted Williams hit a home run in his last at bat.  Why do people continue to do something when they know they are getting worse at it?  Why do women wear high heels?  Because they think it makes them look good. 

Here’s another angle.  At 7:00 this Saturday morning I met our little group at the Goodson Rec. Center.  The temperature was 25 degrees.  The plan was a 12 mile run at a moderate pace.  We held to that plan for the most part and there were  many jokes told.  None are appropriate for this blog.  But we were not alone on the Highline Canal Path.  As we passed other groups of runners we ran a little taller and the pace quickened.  Why do we do it?  Because it makes us feel alive.